Jahan Pollyýewa “How to secure the European continent?” Analytical papers №55, 2018 (№151)

President Donald Trump in January is heading to Davos. The same will do Russian businessmen who until recently were prohibited from entering Switzerland. Last time in Davis German chancellor did not meet with Trump; moreover, in her speech Merkel condemned protectionism. What goals does D. Trump try to achieve while visiting the second time in a row the Mecca of global business?

Valentin Fedorov “Trump, what’s next?” Analytical papers №54, 2018 (№150)

The author analyses the activity of the US President Donald Trump, outlining its unconstructive character. It is aimed at creating special conditions for the US in the global arena, while ignoring the interests of other countries. The «America First» doctrine, adopted by the White House, is viewed by the author as the US reaction to weakening of their positions in international relations. Such an activity provokes counteraction even by their partners in NATO.

Kirill Gusev “How Russia is fighting sanctions and Europe is fighting the dollar.” Analytical papers №53, 2018 (№149)

The world economy is entering a new era: the US pressure is forcing the growing number of countries to reconsider the necessity of protecting their economic sovereignty, among other means, by reducing the international role of the US dollar in favor of greater use of their own currencies. In this context, Russia and Europe are following parallel courses now. Are the differences in their approaches critical or are there prerequisites for joining efforts of the EU and Russia?

Elena Ananieva “Debate in the British Parliament on the Agreement with the EU.” Analytical papers №52, 2018 (№148)

The UK parliament started 5-day’s debate on the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration. On the very first day Theresa May’s government suffered 3 humiliating defeats. There is no agreement among MPs on the Agreement and the future course of action as among the British public.

Vladimir Shveytzer “The renewal of Europe's political elites: trends and contradictions.” Analytical papers №51, 2018 (№147)

A series of crises in the last decade led to significant shifts in power structures of most EU member states. Representatives of social populists, nationalists, post-communists gained seats in executive authorities of Greece, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, and Finland. It also updates the upper stratum around political leaders – Conservative Democrats, Social Democrats. The upcoming EU parliamentary election will confirm this renewing political trend.

Olga Potemkina “The blocking Statute as an instrument of the EU's sovereign trade policy.” Analytical papers №50, 2018 (№146)

This article covers the resumption of the second package of US sanctions against Iran. It deals with the EU's response to the US decision, which restricts EU's trade sovereignty, namely, with updating the 1996 Regulation (Blocking Statute) to neutralize the negative impact of American sanctions against Iran on European business. Having studied the Regulation and the first reaction of European companies, the author stresses political significance of the Blocking Statute as a condemnation of the US actions, and at the same time, expresses doubt about the practical application of the Regulation.

Vladislav Vorotnikov “On the parliamentary elections in Latvia.” Analytical papers №49, 2018 (№145)

At the parliamentary election on October 6, 2018 (the ninth since 1991), the SocialDemocratic Party “Harmony” won again. However, the new government is being once again formed without its participation. The paper is devoted to the changing position of the “Harmony” party and the evolution of its political platform in the circumstances when the Latvian party-political landscape undergoes a new fragmentation under the influenced of growing populism and antiestablishmentarianism.

Yuriy Rubinskiy “France: ‘new – old’ government.” Analytical papers №48, 2018 (№144)

The changes in composition of E. Philip’s cabinet reflects the internal tensions in the Fifth Republic’s power elite, linked to the public disappointment with the results of recent reforms and the breakdown of President Macron confidence ratings.

Anatoliy Bazhan “The Silk Road: implications for the EEU and the EU.” Analytical papers №47, 2018 (№143)

The article discloses possible consequences of the Chinese project of creating the Silk Road Economic Belt for the Eurasian Economic Union and European Union with recommendations for Russian authorities on conducting the policy that would allow to utilize Chinese investments for development of the Russian transport infrastructure and entrepreneurship on adjacent territories. The author concludes that realization of the project could lead to expansion of Chinese trade to the EU states, in particular by means of creation and modernization of enterprises in the Eastern and Central Europe.

Anatoliy Bazhan “Protectionism: increasing role in the global economy.” Analytical papers №46, 2018 (№142)

The article discloses the role of protectionism in the modern global economy. The reasons for increasing influence of protectionism on economic policy in recent years and the main measures practiced by states to protect the interests of domestic producers are analyzed.

Anatoliy Bazhan “Is the collapse of the British economy possible after Brexit?” Analytical papers №45, 2018 (№141)

The article discloses the UK's ability to solve the problems of its development even after leaving the EU. It shows that a slight slowdown in the UK's economic growth is now due to the situation with political uncertainty, resulting from the early parliamentary elections in June 2017 and the beginning of negotiations with the EU on the conditions of Brexit and future economic relations with the Union.

Kirill Gusev “De-dollarization of the Russian economy: an old problem, new solutions?” Analytical papers №44, 2018 (№140)

The new round of anti-Russia sanctions in 2018 once again revealed the risks of the longterm dependence of the Russian economy on the US dollar. The task of dedollarization is gaining new momentum and is being discussed by the highest officials in Russia, backed up by the statements of many foreign partners, trying to avoid the growing economic pressure of the USA.

Natalia Kondratieva “EAEU 2018 through the eyes of experts.” Analytical papers №43, 2018 (№139)

In 2018, Russia chairs the EAEU. The priorities of the presidency are largely dictated by global challenges, as well as prompted by public discussion around the Eurasian integration project. The main results of the work are the extension of integration agenda and increased attention of the outside world to cooperation with the EAEU. What is new in the assets of the Union and what does the expert community say about it?

Vladimir Shveytzer “Austria – EU: Vienna-focused presidency.” Analytical papers №42, 2018 (№138)

In the second half of 2018 Austria became the chairman of the EU Council, vesting its political elite with the functions of coordinating current EU policy, the whole set of foreign political problems, as well as complex relations between members of the Union. The recent months revealed the capabilities of this small Central European state in EU's finding solutions to the acute problems of the European and global politics.

Oleg Okhoshin “Brexit may 'stop' again at Northern Ireland border.” Analytical papers №41, 2018 (№137)

The new stage of negotiations on brexit largely depends on the future legal status of the Northern Ireland border. It remains the «cornerstone»,  which prevents determining faster the contours of new trade agreements between the UK and the EU. The continuation of the political crisis in Northern Ireland and the activity of Brexiteers within the Conservative Party can influence the course of the negotiation process.

Kira Godovanyuk “The Skripal case as a tool of British politics.” Analytical papers №40, 2018 (№136)

UK-Russia relations go through a new phase of deterioration. British government uses the poisoning of Sergey and Yuliya Skripal as a tool for its domestic and international policy in order to consolidate public opinion and political elites in the United Kingdom against the «external enemy» and create an anti-Russia coalition. The international resonance of the «spy poisoning» case resulted in expulsion of Russian diplomats from 28 countries, a new wave of US anti-Russia sanctions and an escalation of tensions over Syria. The UK conservative government is trying to hold on to power against the backdrop of challengeable Brexit negotiations.

Alexander Shumilin “US-Europe: standoff over Iran escalates.” Analytical papers №39, 2018 (№135)

In early August 2018 the Trump administration embarked on the re-establishment of sanction regime on Iran suspended under the JCPOA signed in 2015, doing it in two stages. To protect the European companies in Iran EU enacted the Blocking Statute. So far the Statute remains to be a controversial factor between Washington and Brussels, because regardless the Statute, most of the European companies prefer to abandon the Iranian market under the pressure of the American sanctions. Tehran urges Europe to take a more resolute stance to overcome the American sanctions’ implications. Otherwise Tehran threatens to resume the Uranium enrichment process going beyond the agreed degree. To keep Iran within the JCPOA even without the United States is a challenge for the EU not only in terms of security and economy, but in terms of European prestige as well.

Olga Potemkina “The European Union's hot migration summer.” Analytical papers №38, 2018 (№134)

The article analyses the conclusions of the EU summit in June 2018 and the prospects for their implementation. The author expresses doubts that the idea of «the new mechanisms» for settlement of migration problems, especially «disembarkation platforms», can be realised in the nearest future. At the same time, the EU’s desire for «outsourcing» of migration complicates its relations with the African states, which do not demonstrate enthusiasm in restraining migrants’ inflow. The author concludes that the EU leaders have only partly succeeded in their attempts to smooth the existing confrontations. The migration problems remain in the EU’s political agenda.

Kirill Gusev “The Russian ruble exchange rate and the role of gold in the global economy.” Analytical papers №37, 2018 (№133)

August 2018 saw a sharp decline in Russian ruble’s exchange rate. The author dwells on its causes, and analyses the structural changes in Russian reserves in favor of gold as means of protection against sanctions and global financial market instability, caused by the aggressive policy of the USA.

Natalia Plevako “"Elections in Sweden and NATO.” Analytical papers №36, 2018 (№132)

The article reveals the essence and features of the political debate in Sweden about the possible entry into NATO. The positions of party-electoral blocs are explained, arguments in favor of this or that decision are presented. The problem became particularly acute on the eve of parliamentary elections in September 2018. The approximate equality of electoral capabilities of both blocs introduces a special intrigue in the electoral process. The third force, Sweden Democrats gaining political weight from year to year, is involved. Under certain conditions, it is ready to cooperate with Moderate coalition party, actively defending the idea of turning Sweden into a full member of NATO.

Kirill Gusev “Reduction of Russian investments in US government bonds: causes and consequences.” Analytical papers №35, 2018 (№131)

Since their introduction, the sanctions of Western countries, first of all the US, against Russia had no impact on the strategic decision, taken before the economic crisis in 2008, of investing a significant portion of Russian official reserves into US Treasuries. But the aggravation of the US sanction policy in 2018, finally, forced Russian financial authorities to come up with a symmetrical answer.

Oleg Okhoshin “Brexit is a bone of contention between London and Edinburgh.” Analytical papers №34, 2018 (№130)

In summer 2018, serious changes took place in British politics. Britain's future withdrawal from the European Union continued to divide the Conservative Party. After lengthy debate, Theresa May's government outlined its general position on Brexit in White Paper. It still has controversial points, that provoked sharp criticism of supporters of the «hard» EU divorce and led to resignation of two ministers - D. Davis and B. Johnson. In Scotland, the local government requires certainty from T. May and wants to know what line the UK will take in negotiations with the EU if it fails to conclude a new trade agreement. In this situation, T. May tries to take a cautious stance promising Scotland subsidies in order to save the loyalty of the region to the UK.

Alexander Shumilin “After Helsinki: prospects for a Syrian settlemen.t” Analytical papers №33, 2018 (№129)

A series of practical steps following Putin-Trump summit in Helsinki on July 16, 2018 is to suggest that there was a kind of mutual understanding between the presidents on preferred scenarios of bringing Syria closer to political settlement. It is too early to talk about an agreement between Moscow and Washington, nevertheless we see both sides exploring certain possibilities of compromise with the EU's participation underway. In the aftermath of the summit Mr. S. Lavrov (Head of Foreign Affairs) and General V. Gerassimov (Head of Joint Staff) visited Israel, Germany and France conveying a message related to Syrian settlement. Regardless of the rather cold reception of Russian proposals, it is clear that the idea of a compromise with Russia on Syria is on the agenda in Europe.

Dmitriy Danilov “Russia-EU security relations: limitations and prospects.”  Analytical papers №32, 2018 (№128)

The article analyzes EU–Russia political and security relations, which suffer from the deficit of long-term vision and continue to develop reactively, although in the deterrence paradigm. The EU’s formula of «selective cooperation + constructive dialogue» does not work, as the parties cannot determine the desired guidelines and institutional framework of relations. Growing uncertainty increases the risks of consolidation of confrontational trends. Despite the EU’s claims for strategic autonomy and credible CSDP, its growing dependence on American guarantees and U.S. strategic objectives weaken the potential for EU–Russia cooperation. On the other hand, it is a serious argument and motivation for restoring the systemic and structured EU–Russia political dialogue.

Jahan Pollyýewa “Sanctions, duties, countermeasures… What's next?” Analytical papers №31, 2018 (№127)

The Western policy of sanctions, aimed at getting one-sided benefits, has been changing its directions, extending its territory of application and acquiring new forms. The fight for dominant roles in the economy is getting harder. Having shifted for the time being into the field of customs tariffs, it has partly reached its goals. The author addresses further questions: Has the trade war finished? Why the tariffs war is one of the consequences of the policy of sanctions? How will it evolve and how is it connected with the current state of Euro-Atlantic relations and interests of military-industrial lobbies?

Elena Ananieva “Theresa May's ultimatums and compromises.” Analytical papers № №30, 2018 (№126)

Resignations of political heavyweights in Theresa May’s government (D. Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, and B. Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs) in protest against the PM’s Chequers compromise on negotiations with the EU, as well as the visit of US President D. Trump to the UK, somewhat overshadowed the events in Westminster. The near deadlock in parliament could trigger the fall of government, a second UK EU referendum, a standstill in Brexit negotiations.

Vladislav Belov “Migration crisis in Germany and the European Union: a difficult search for solutions.” Analytical papers №29, 2018 (№125)

The Minister of Internal Affairs of Germany H. Seehofer prepared in early June the «Migration Masterplan», with provisions for coalition agreement on migration. Federal Chancellor A. Merkel disagreed with one of his points on border controls in Germany. The conflict developed into a political crisis. The Minister voiced an ultimatum to the head of coalition. A. Merkel, having accepted it, made significant efforts to discuss a number of issues with leaders of the EU member states. Among them: conclusion of bilateral agreements on readmission of migrants and joint steps for resolution of European migration crisis. The agreements reached at the summit in Brussels in late June formed the basis for compromise between CDU and CSU. The government has adopted a set of urgent measures to combat illegal migration and tighten German migration policy. The paper analyzes the causes and consequences of the conflict, which led to the political crisis in Germany, as well as the role of the EU in overcoming it.

Alexey Gromyko “Political landscape of Europe. Is geopolitical loneliness a threat to the EU?” Analytical papers №28, 2018 (№124)

Recent international events confirm the opinion about growing fragmentation of «collective West», including deepening contradictions between USA and their allies and increasing divergence of policies among European countries. In fact, Washington under Donald Tramp has introduced the principle of transactional relations in dealing with its partners. The summit of G7 in Canada has become one more manifestation of this trend. One of the factors in the deconstruction of the West is the approaches towards cooperation with Russia. Another one is the evolving political processes connected with «new populism». In view of changes on the international arena and growing uncertainties, the significance for Russia of the task to consolidate Eurasian integration projects is paramount.

Vladislav Belov “Russian-German cooperation in the context of current challenges.” Analytical papers №27, 2018 (№123)

In the spring of 2018, in Germany was elected federal chancellor, in Russia – the president. Both leaders updated the government cabinet and stated the need to continue constructive dialogue between our countries. At the same time, relations between the Russian Federation and the collective West (in the first place, with the United States) deteriorated substantially. The EU has problems in economic trans-atlantic cooperation. There was a threat of using American extraterritorial sanctions against German and other European companies. The paper analyzes the prospects for Russian-German relations in the face of new and old challenges.

Vladislav Belov “Prospects for the implementation of ‘Nord Stream – 2’” Analytical papers №26, 2018 (№122)

The implementation of the Nord Stream-2 project (from the Russian point of view it contributes to the strengthening of domestic and European energy security) is threatened. Poland and some other EU countries are its strong opponents. The USA (in accordance with the CAATSA law of August 2, 2017) promises to do everything to prevent the implementation of the project. The American administration threatens the European companies involved in the project with extraterritorial sanctions. The main arguments: Nord Stream-2 pose a threat to the energy sovereignty of Europe and Ukraine. The article analyzes the main advantages of the project, the chances and risks, as well as the prospects for its implementation.

Vladimir Vernikov “The Spanish Socialists suddenly returned to power. For how long?” Analytical papers №25, 2018 (№121)

The Spanish Socialist Worker’s Party filed a no-confidence motion to the Congress of Deputies (the lower chamber of the parliament). After the vote of no confidence to the People’s Party that had been staying in power for 11 years the government under M. Rahoj was ousted. P. Sánchez, leader of the PSOE, becoming head of government automatically, has already taken oath to King Felipe VI and started forming his cabinet. The author analyses the implications of this unprecedented event in Spanish post-Frankist history and presents his prognosis of future developments.

Kira Godovanyuk “On the British approach to the Iran nuclear deal.” Analytical papers №24, 2018 (№120)

D. Trump unilaterally repealed ‘The Joint Сomprehensive Plan of Action’ and put the allies from P5+1 into an awkward situation. The main dilemma for the UK, France and Germany is whether they will follow the Euro-Atlantic course despite their strategic and economic interests in Iran or they will choose confrontation with Washington over Iran with uncertain political consequences and substantial financial sanctions. The second scenario means for London breaking solidarity with the US (the so called ‘special relationship’).

Alexander Shumilin “Iran Node: Will the European alternative to US policy work?” Analytical papers №23, 2018 (№119)

Despite a large and multifaceted agenda of the EU summit in Sofia on May,17, the main focus of the event was made on the European leaders decision to go ahead with implementing the nuclear deal with Iran reached on July 2015 (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA). That decision was made contrary to the American administration’s appeal to follow its example – either to pull out of the JCPOA or to replace/complete it with a new deal. Nevertheless, the Europeans decided to go their own way while trying to pick the lesser of two evils. Namely, they are supposed to believe that the regular dispute with the US might be settled sooner or later and in the partnership manner and spirit, while the prospect to see Tehran return to Iran’s enrichment is likely to prove a true threat for the European security in the long run.

Yuriy Rubinskiy “Transatlantic dialogue: in search of new benchmarks.” Analytical papers №22, 2018 (№118)

President D. Trump's revision of US approaches to the key problems of global economy and politics urged for coordination of positions of the leading partners in NATO and the EU. This was the goal of French and German leaders' visits to Washington on 23-25 and 27 April 2018, which brought ambiguous results for them so far.

Lyubov Shishelina “The 2018 Parliamentary elections in Hungary.” Analytical papers №21, 2018 (№117)

Hungarian parliamentary elections in 2018 for the fourth time in the new history of the country brought victory to FIDESZ. At the same time, the current election campaign ended with an unprecedented failure of the social-liberal opposition, notwithstanding the active support of the official Brussels. Resignation of the founder and permanent leader of the right-wing party Jobbik became another surprise of the recent campaign, despite his party's best result in the modern history (for the first time, it bypassed its political rivals and, at the same time, its opposition allies – the Hungarian socialists). However, despite another convincing victory, FIDESZ's new cabinet will not have an easy time. It will have to rule against the background of the opposition attempts to unite, as well as in constant confrontation with the official Brussels.

Kira Godovanyuk “‘Purely English’ presumption of guilt.” Analytical papers № 19, 2018 (№115)

UK-Russia relations go through a new phase of deterioration. The poisoning of Sergey and Yuliya Skripal in Salisbury on March, 4, resulted in an international scandal. Great Britain intentionally politicized the incident and accused Russia of an attempt to kill a British citizen and of use of force (chemical agent «Novichok») on British territory. London called upon its NATO and EU allies to express solidarity, and follow the example of Foggy Albion by expelling Russian diplomats.

Kira Godovanyuk “Negotiations between the Foreign Ministers of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Belarus.” Analytical papers №18, 2018 (№114)

The «spy poisoning» case buried hope for improving UK-Russia relations in the foreseeable

future. London’s allies in the Atlantic region took the decision to expel Russian diplomats in solidarity with Foggy Albion. The diplomatic «flash mob» was joined by post- Soviet and CIS countries, such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The official Minsk didn’t make any statement on the case. Meanwhile the Minister of foreign affairs of the Republic of Belarus paid a «historic» visit to London on March 27-28. The negotiations went positively, which confirms the UK policy of strengthening ties with post-Soviet countries while spoiling them with Russia.

Elena Ananieva “Britain strengthens its defenses.” Analytical papers № 17, 2018 (№113)

Behind the canvas of the «Russian spy poisoning» case there appears a plethora of aspects and goals: short- and long-term, domestic and foreign policy ones – of the UK and the West. One of the aspects is related to the Trident modernization programme as the sequence of events proves.

 

Kirill Gusev “Paradoxes of investment policy.” Analytical papers №16, 2018 (№112)

The beginning of 2018 promises good political and financial background for the longawaited changes in Russian economic policy. In this context, the author discusses some recent statistical data, analyses the new developments in financial sphere and projects their possible consequences.

Oleg Okhoshin “The restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly is again under threat.” Analytical papers №15, 2018 (№111)

On the initiative of the British government and the leading political forces of Northern Ireland – the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein, a new stage of negotiations was held, aimed at restoring the work of local government suspended since March 2017. All sides were confident of a quick resolution of contradictions, but after the talks they only worsened.

Yuriy Rubinskiy “France: farewell to bipolarity?” Analytical papers №14, 2018 (№110)

The political structure of the Fifth republic was based on rotation at power of the two system parties of the left and right centers – republicans and socialists. After their crushing defeat at both presidential and parliamentary elections in 2017, the hegemony of the center party of President Macron «La République en Marche!», created on the debris of the former system, was established. But its longevity is subject to the results of the presidential program of modernization of the social and economic model of France, capable of stimulating centrifugal trends among voters.

Marina Kolesnikova “Marine spatial planning in the EU.” Analytical papers №13, 2018 (№109)

On 7 December 2017, the European Commission decided to refer to the Court of Justice of the EU the cases of non-compliance by Bulgaria, Greece and Finland with certain provisions of Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning. Marine spatial planning is designed for management organization of economic activities in the marine and ocean waters and sustainable use of marine and coastal resources based on the ecosystem approach. Directive 2014/89/EC obliges coastal member states of the European Union to appoint the responsible authorities and to enact laws, regulations and administrative provisions necessary to carry out its installations and the development of marine spatial planning in the EU in the period before 18 September 2016. The fact of the transfer of cases to the court demonstrates that the process is under the strict control of the European Commission. The attention that the European Union gives to the planning of economic activities in the surrounding marine and ocean areas demonstrates the growing importance of the maritime component in the EU's foreign and domestic policy.

Igor Shcherbak “On the new EU strategy for emergency assistance in crisis regions of the world in partnership with international organizations.” Analytical papers №12, 2018 (№108)

The article is devoted to the new EU strategy on emergency assistance in case of conflicts or large-scale natural disasters. Special attention is placed on the approach of Brussels to utilization of emergency assistance for the purpose of early warning of crisis situations and social- economic reconstruction and development of the countries affected in the long-term perspective. The EU policy is studied concerning the usage of resources and expertise of the UN system’s organizations with the aim to increase its influence in the crises affected regions. Some recommendations on the basis of the experience accumulated by the EU have been formulated for the Russian authorities dealing with the same problems.

Vladimir Vernikov “Crisis in Catalonia has a beginning but no end in sight.” Analytical papers №11, 2018 (№107)

There is a saying that revolutions have a beginning but no end. The case of Catalonia allows to paraphrase the saying: counter-revolutions have a precise date of beginning, but nobody can predict their end. Events in Catalonia, starting in November, 2016, with the anticonstitutional poll on the right of secession from Spain, continued with the likewise anticonstitutional referendum (1 October, 2017) on proclaiming independence. Nowadays political analysts in Spain, following the verdict of Constitutional Court, unambiguously characterize these events as an anticonstitutional rebellion: subverting the constitutional structure of the nation-state with the intention of secession – and use the term «counter-revolution».

Vladislav Belov “German-Russian cooperation in the field of digitalization of the economy.” Analytical papers №10, 2018 (№106)

The digital transformation has an increasing impact on economic and political processes in modern economies, first of all, in terms of their international medium and long term competitiveness. This fully applies to the national economies of Germany and Russia. Both states pursue a policy of supporting digitalization in spheres of industry and services. Germany has here more experience, also in terms of cooperation with other countries. But according to the main innovation indicators RF and Germany are behind the world leaders. One of the ways to overcome the backlog is the development of Russian-German digital interaction, which is still only at the very beginning and is substantially inferior to the digital cooperation of Germany and China. The article covers issues of the available potential and development prospects of bilateral cooperation in this area.

Kira Godovanyuk “The Eastern European direction of British foreign Policy”. Analytical papers №9, 2018 (№105)

Once the first phase of UK-EU negotiations was finalized, UK actively started developing its foreign agenda. The aim is to envisage multidirectional foreign policy involving traditional allies along with the awkward counterparts. During December 2017 a wide range of international events were held including the second UK-Poland summit and UK-Russia talks in Moscow.

Kira Godovanyuk “Britain confirms ties with its allies.” Analytical papers №8, 2018 (№104)

Against the backdrop of Brexit negotiations, UK is actively developing its foreign policy, relying on its traditional partners in the EU and beyond. On January 18 the 35th UK-France summit took place. The United Kingdom and France have agreed an ambitious bilateral co-operation agenda which aims to deepen their strategic partnership. On 31st of January Mrs. May went on an official visit to China with the aim to negotiate a future trade deal with the Asian largest economy.

Valery Zhuravel “On the results of the Finnish presidential election.” Analytical papers №7, 2018 (№103)

The article analyzes the results of presidential elections 2018 in Finland, where the ruling President Sauli Niinistö as an independent candidate won in the first round. The author reveals the current state and trends of Russian-Finnish relations.

Elena Ananieva “Theresa May between Brexit and Brino.” Analytical papers №6, 2018 (№102)

Intraparty strife among the Tory sharpens notwithstanding the January reshuffle. PM Theresa May trying to keep the balance between the Bremainers and Brexiteers cannot strengthen her position, since both sides would be discontent with her. Speculation as to her resignation and possible successors continues weakening UK foreign policy.

Mikhail Vedernikov “Peculiarities of the 2018 Czech presidential election.” Analytical papers №5, 2018 (№101)

The article analyzes the results of the 2018 presidential elections in the Czech Republic, according to which M. Zeman won. The author also studies main trends of pre-election campaign, turning attention on reasons for the current perception of this political race as a referendum for/against Zeman.

Oleg Okhoshin “Northern Ireland border issue nearly ‘froze’ Brexit.” Analytical papers №4, 2018 (№100)

Sharp contradictions that arose within the Conservative Party minority government could disrupt the further schedule of negotiations between the UK and the EU. The resolution of the question of the border of Northern Ireland resulted in a political scandal and the deterioration of relations between the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionist Party. Recent allies almost became enemies while Theresa May, with great effort, completed the first stage of Brexit talks in Brussels..

Vladimir Shveytzer “Austria: Conservative-nationalist Alliance.” Analytical papers №3, 2018 (№99)

In late 2017, Austria held extraordinary parliamentary elections. They confirmed the earlier identified right shift in the political life of this country. The conservative Austrian People’s Party and the nationalist Freedom Party of Austria have built the new government. According to the authors, this coalition can definitely change the domestic political situation in Austria, as well as influence the political balance in the EU.

Vladimir Vernikov “Catalonia remains a dangerous hotbed of separatism” Analytical papers №2, 2018 (№98)

Snap Catalonia regional parliamentary elections in December, 2017, did not bring about a new configuration of forces, which was rather naïve to expect. Nevertheless, M.Rahoj’s government is difficult to reproach for naivety. It did understand that all its actions in Catalonia after the illegal independence referendum on 1 October, 2017 (among other things enacting Article 155 of the Constitution of Spain) did not add trust for the central government among local citizens. So, what had been the intention of Madrid when trying to untie the ‘Catalan knot’ temporarily by snap elections?

Valentin Fedorov “Russia: Arctic resource.” Analytical papers №1, 2018 (№97)

The author views the Arctic region as a vital resource for Russia; its importance will grow. It is time to realize that the North is not a dead load. The shock therapy of the 1990s undermined the development of the North, millions of people left, cargo transportation dropped dramatically. Along with production increase and infrastructure creation it is time to accelerate the social development of the Arctic zone. It is not feasible to use rotation system only. New localities should be created and the existing ones - modernized. The global warming stimulates the demand for the Northern Sea Route, due to its advantages over other routes. It is time to start broad social movement ‘Arctic exploration’.

Alexey Gromyko “On the strategic thinking.: Analytical papers №30, 2015 (№30)

Alexey Sindeev “Bundeswehr's Syria-Iraq operation.” Analytical papers №29, 2015 (№29)

On 10 December 2015, six Tornado reconnaissance aircrafts of the German Air Force arrived in Turkey to begin a combat mission from the beginning of the next year. The reason for the operation was the terrorist attacks on Paris on November 13, named by the French President F. Hollande's "war". According to the official position, Germany shows solidarity. In this regard, we will try to understand whether we are talking about a conventional military operation or about changes in the foreign and security policy of one of the major European countries.

Alexey Sindeev “Propaganda as a factor of internal and external policy in the age of globalization (German approach).” Analytical papers №28, 2015 (№28)

Democracy, like any political regime, is interested in stable functioning and development, which is impossible without constant work on the formation of public consensus. The governments of most of the EU countries understand that it is necessary to strengthen national policies in this direction and to intensify joint actions of the allied countries. After all, on the one hand, democracy relies on the legitimate decisions of the majority, and for the latter it is necessary to constantly fight, on the other hand, even legitimate decisions taken in one country can have a negative impact on the population of another country, whose politicians, respecting the principle of state sovereignty, can not directly affect the processes of democratic expression of will in the neighboring state, which, among other things, can form in their electorate an idea of the inaction of local elites and lead to the popularity of counter-elites. The coordination of the efforts of the allied states, especially within the framework of the European Union, is also relevant due to the so-called hybrid wars, in which propaganda acts as one of the effective means of achieving success. Propaganda, therefore, is important for so-called domestic consumption (for its own citizens) and as a product for export (for citizens of other states). The experience of Germany, one of the major foreign policy players in Europe, will certainly be interesting.

Elena Ananieva “How not to lose the war, winning a battle?” Analytical papers №27, 2015 (№27)

British Prime Minister David Cameron has sent a letter to the President of the European Council, David Tusk, with proposals on the terms of the country's membership in the EU. The negotiations are entering a crucial stage. Will the parties be able to reach a compromise? Executive editor of the series "Analytical Paper of IE RAS" N. K. Gusev

Elena Ananieva “Britain's EU membership: referendum law passed, public opinion split.” Analytical papers №26, 2015 (№26)

The author analyzes the internal political struggle in the UK around the adoption of the law on the referendum on Britain's membership in the EU, the dynamics of public opinion in the country on the prospects for relations with the European Union. Executive editor of the series "Analytical Papers of IE RAS" N. K. Gusev

Nikolay Kaveshnikov “EU Energy Union as a response to the ‘Russian challenge.’” Analytical papers №25, 2015 (№25)

The paper analyzes the main elements and directions of development of the EU Energy Union. It is noted that most of the goals and even specific measures included in the concept of the Energy Union, in fact, have long been implemented in practice. Indeed, new significant steps are planned only in the field of foreign energy policy (attempts to tighten EU control over bilateral intergovernmental agreements and the idea of creating a "pool of gas buyers"). It is concluded that the EU does not plan to use the Energy Union as a geopolitical weapon against Russia, but the general vector of development of the EU energy policy, fixed in this project, does not favor the interests of Russian energy suppliers, primarily natural gas.

Valery Zhuravel “The Arctic Council: the US Presidency (first results)” Analytical papers №24, 2015 (№24)

The author analyzes the first months of the presidency of the United States of America in the Arctic Council, as well as the sanctions policy of the United States and European countries against Russia in the Arctic direction. The report emphasizes that in the face of many unresolved issues, the United States intend to use its presidency primarily to solve its own internal Arctic problems.

Alexey Sindeev “Maxims of modern German Foreign Policy.” Analytical papers №23, 2015 (№23)

The statement that the world is experiencing a collapse of the former world order and is trying build a new one has become somewhat of an axiom. In this context, central players in the regions (one of which in Europe, without a doubt, is the Federal Republic of Germany) should be paid special attention. The politicians of this country have significant responsibility. At present, twenty-five years after the unification, the emergence of a democratic greater Germany, it will have to show how much it can help and contribute to the creation of a new world order in Europe. It is interesting that over the past two months, much evidence suggests that the strategic planning in the German Foreign Ministry in this direction is quite active. The analysis of the speeches of A. Merkel and F.-V. Steinmeier allows us to draw a number of interesting, in our opinion, conclusions.

Elena Ananieva: “UK Labour Party: principles or power?” Analytical papers №22, 2015 (№22)

A new leader of the Labour Party has been elected. Will the party remain united, what will be its political platform and what are its electoral prospects?

Alexey Sindeev “Germany and foreign policy aspects of the refugee crisis.” Analytical papers №21, 2015 (№21)

Germany has taken in a significant proportion of the refugees who have arrived in Europe in recent months. The parties that are part of the government coalition in Germany are trying to agree on common approaches aimed at increasing control over migration flows. Most analysts focus on the development of a domestic political compromise, thinking about the prospects of a government coalition, individual parties and Angela Merkel. Regarding the latter, a rumor was discussed that she allegedly received an invitation to take up the post of UN Secretary-General. The foreign policy aspects of the crisis provide a special interest for analysis.

Alexey Gromyko “Russia, the USA, Lesser Europe (the EU): competition for leadership in the world of polycentricity.” Analytical papers №20, 2015 (№20)

The paper examines relationships within a triangle “Russia – European Union – United States”. A review of fundamental works on the current world order, Europe and Russia’s stances is provided. The author draws a conclusion about five possible types of relations: from the rapprochement of Russia and the EU (Greater Europe) against the background of the decline of the "American dream" to the drift of everyone from each other.

Alexey Gromyko “The United Kingdom: new political situation.” Analytical papers №19, 2015 (№19)

Kirill Gusev “The European Central Bank and the euro area crisis.” Analytical papers № 18, 2015 (№18)

The author analyzes some aspects of the policy of the European Central Bank in the crisis years and their impact on the economic processes and prospects of the euro area.

Olga Butorina “Peculiaritites of Eurasian model of economic integration.” Analytical papers №17, 2015 (№17).

The goal of regional integration is to create the most comfortable global stratum that allows participants to strengthen the positive and reduce the negative effects of globalization. The initial conditions affect the model and the integration mechanisms in its specific case. The author names four distinctive features of the Eurasian economic integration and points to the experience of other regional associations that is useful for its development.

Yuriy Rubinskiy, Sergey Fedorov, Natalia Supyan “Franco-German tandem in the context of the Ukrainian crisis.” Analytical papers №16, 2015 (№16)

Since the second half of 2014-the beginning of 2015, Berlin and Paris have been converging on issues of joint solution of a number of pressing problems on the European continent, primarily related to the situation around Ukraine. Within the tandem, there is a certain asymmetry, a distribution of roles that takes into account the different interests of its participants and the need to coordinate mutual approaches. These features are also evident in the current difficult search by France and Germany for ways out of the Ukrainian crisis.

Olga Potemkina “Current problems of the European Union's immigration policy.” Analytical papers №15, 2015 (№15)

The increasing number of deaths among migrants trying to make their way from the coast of Libya to the southern EU states in the Mediterranean Sea has caused an outrage all around the world and prompted urgent measures from the European Union. The EU Commission is trying to resolve the crisis by using  not only the tools of immigration policy, but also the CFSP. The differences between the Member States do not allow us to find the right solution in a timely manner.

Vladimir Shveytzer “The European Union: from elections to elections.” Analytical papers №14, 2015 (№14)

The author analyzes the state of the electoral process in European politics over the past year after the elections to the European Parliament, which was full of important events both on a country and continent-wide scale, changes in the situation in the global space, outside the clearly defined European Union borders.

Yuriy Rubinskiy “France: two party conventions.” Analytical papers №13, 2015 (№13)

The author analyzes the results of the conventions of the leading opposition party- the center-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) - and the ruling Socialist Party, held in France on the eve of the traditional summer holidays.

Dmitriy Danilov “National Security Strategy of Ukraine: potential consequences for  Ukrainian-Russian relations.” Analytical papers №12, 2015 (№12)

The paper analyzes the content, political attitudes, priorities and main objectives of the new National Security Strategy of Ukraine, approved on May 26, 2015 in the context of Russian interests. In general, the Strategy is motivated not so much by Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic choice as by its anti-Russian orientation. A peaceful political settlement of the internal Ukrainian conflict is not considered as a necessary element of restoring the destroyed balances in Europe, including Russian-Ukrainian relations. The note provides some suggestions for a possible Russian response to the Ukrainian Strategy and related practical measures.

Natalia Plevako “Sweden model: past and present.” Analytical papers №11, 2015 (№11)

Are the claims of a number of authors about the end of the Swedish model, which for many years attracted the attention of social scientists, politicians and journalists, true? The Swedish model is not only economic and social relations, it is also a special type of culture, behavioral stereotypes, and mentality that has developed historically and cannot disappear in a short time.

Vladislav Belov “Bremen elections: victory for small protest parties.” Analytical papers №10, 2015 (№10)

On 10 May 2015, the last elections to the Landtag of Bremen were held in Germany. Their results are of interest from the point of view of analyzing the main party-political trends in Germany, both at the land and federal levels.

Yuriy Rubinskiy “Political tsunami.” Analytical papers №9, 2015 (№9)

The elections to the French local authorities (departmental councils), held at the end of March 2015, were an important event in the political life of the country. The election campaign went far beyond the issues of local importance and acquired the character of a tough confrontation between the leading political forces of the country. The marked evolution of the French party-political system from a bipolar to a three-party system can be perceived as a main outcome of the last elections. It is obvious that the campaigns will be held in the same vein before the next regional elections in December 2015, and most importantly, the presidential elections in May 2017.

Alexey Gromyko, Valentin Fedorov “How to raise the growth rate.” Analytical papers №8, 2015 (№8)

We do not pretend to have absolute novelty. The suggested proposals are in tune with the ideas of Academician N. P. Shmelev (1936-2014). They are also contained in the reflections and works of Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences E. M. Primakov. A number of Russian economists argue in this direction. We want to draw attention to the economic patterns that will allow the Russian economy to achieve high growth rates and scientific and technological progress on a healthy basis.

Alexey Gromyko, Valentin Fedorov “To ban economic sanctions.” Analytical papers №7, 2015 (№7)

This paper is a general outline of the idea of an international ban on economic sanctions. It could become, if properly discussed, an attention-grabbing new foreign policy initiative of Russia. Such an initiative would have a high chance of meeting a positive response from the general public and strengthening our country's position in the international arena.

Ludmila Babynina “Iceland and the European Union: fish and banks.” Analytical papers №6, 2015 (№6)

The author analyzes the current relationship between the European Union and Iceland, the reasons for applying for the country's accession to the EU and its withdrawal in early 2015.

Kirill Gusev “Foreign investment, the ruble exchange rate and the structural adjustment of the Russian economy.” Analytical papers №5, 2015 (№5)

The author analyzes the impact of the foreign investment outflow on the ruble exchange rate dynamics in the context of crises as one of the manifestations of the vulnerability of the national economy structure that has developed over the years of reforms and suggests steps to improve the economic policy of the Russian state.

Pavel Kandel “Suspicious cardiogram or crisis of confidence? (elections in South-Eastern Europe)” Analytical papers №4, 2015 (№4)

The 2014 elections in some countries of the region revealed new trends: an increase in the protest vote, a request to update the political scene, and attraction to "anti-system", previously marginal populist and / or nationalist forces and leaders. In other states, visible socio-economic problems had little impact on the electoral process. Can we talk about a "crisis of confidence" in the political class?

ВValery Zhuravel “Russian World in Ukraine: problems and prospects.” Analytical papers №3, 2015 (№3)

The problem of the Russian world has sharply worsened in recent years. The violations of rights of our compatriots are on the rise. The space for the Russian language and culture abroad is restricted. In an explicit or hidden form, policies aimed at assimilating or marginalizing of the Russians and Russian-speakers, countering their self-organization and consolidation are being implemented. There is an intensification of attempts on the part of the United States and its allies, a number of international organizations to isolate Russia, to impose sanctions against scientists and cultural figures for their ideological positions, to discredit the political course pursued by our country in the eyes of the general public. Russia's geopolitical rivals are seeking to expand their influence on the Russian-speaking audience, including our compatriots abroad.

Valentin Fedorov “Antirussian sanctions.” Analytical papers №2, 2015 (№2)

The paper examines the current situation in Europe, which has developed in connection with the Ukrainian events and the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions by Western countries. The economic, scientific, technical and other mutual relations built over decades are at risk. Minimal mobilization of political efforts is required in order to cope with the situation, to decrease confrontation and to encourage negotiation.

Alexey Gromyko “Forward to the past?” Analytical papers №1, 2015 (№1)