Anna Ayvazyan “Signing of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement between Armenia and the EU.” Analytical papers №23, 2017 (№96)
On November 24, 2017, Armenia signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the European Union in Brussels. The symbolic significance of this event lies in the emergence, instead of "either-or", of the "both-and" approach to the combination of the European and Eurasian integration vectors. Thus, Armenia will continue to cooperate with the EU, while maintaining a strategic partnership with Russia. Nevertheless, it is too early to assess the fact of signing the agreements as a result of successful cooperation between Armenia and both partners.
Oleg Okhoshin “Political crisis in Northertn Ireland: is there a solution?” Analytical papers №22, 2017 (№95)
The political situation in Northern Ireland has been increasingly dramatic since January 2017, when the local coalition government was dissolved. Ways of rapprochement between the two main parties in the region – Sinn Fein and the DUP- have not yet been found, while new reasons for disagreement are coming to the fore. This state of affairs requires the British government to develop a very cautious approach and find a compromise. It is clear that the political crisis in Northern Ireland is not only significantly slowing down the Brexit negotiations, but also poses a serious threat to the region's economy.
Vladimir Vernikov “Pawn vs King.” Analytical papers №21, 2017 (№94)
The situation in Catalonia after the October 1, 2017 referendum on secession from Spain, which was not sanctioned by the central authorities and banned by the Constitutional Court, was confusing and conflictual. The October 9 meeting of the autonomous parliament following its results and the speech of the head of government raised the degree of tension between Barcelona and Madrid, which was forced to resort to an ultimatum in order to avoid deepening the crisis in the autonomy. But the head of the Catalan government did not respond to this ultimatum on October 16, as required by the government of the country, and tried to buy time by insisting on negotiations on the results of the referendum, recognized by Madrid as illegal. It is difficult to predict the further development of events.
Vladislav Belov “What changes are waiting for Germany.” Analytical papers №20, 2017 (№93)
The election campaign in Germany has reached the finish line. The Bundestag elections are two weeks away – during this time party leaders and their candidates will have to convince their traditional and potential voters to cast their ballots. Many of them have not yet decided on their electoral preferences, which makes the election results less predictable. In any case, Russian-German relations will develop progressively.
Jahan Pollyýewa “A new ‘ghost’ roams Europe.’ Analytical papers №19, 2017 (№92)
Rotations have been happening in the political circles of the EU for the second year. It is too early to talk about a real renewal, but the specter of Brexit continues to hover over Europe, ridding it of old elites and ideologies.
Kira Godovanyuk “Conference on Ukrainian Reforms in London.” Analytical papers №18, 2017 (№91)
On July 6, an international conference on reforms in Ukraine was held in London under the auspices of the British government. The conference was attended by representatives of more than 30 countries, international financial institutions, as well as a delegation of the Government of Ukraine. Progress was recorded in the reform of the Ukrainian state and assurances were given that the international community will continue to support Ukrainian democracy. Britain is interested not so much in resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine, but in promoting its business interests and political influence on the country in the confrontation with Russia.
Yuriy Rubinskiy “France: a paradigm shift.” Analytical papers №17, 2017 (№90)
The presidential and parliamentary elections of 2017 in France not only completed a regular electoral cycle and opened a new one. The unconventional course of the election campaigns and their results indicate significant changes in the entire party system of the Fifth Republic, the rules of the game and the composition of its political class.
Dmitriy Danilov “Informal NATO Summit: reallocation of burden and responsibility.” Analytical papers №16, 2017 (№89)
The meeting of the heads of state and government of NATO on May 25, 2017 was initially considered as a key political event, as the first European visit of D. Trump, during which it was necessary to determine the new terms of the transatlantic agreement both within the framework of the alliance itself and in the broader context of US-European relations. Thus, in essence, for the first time, D. Trump called into question the central axiom of the Euro-Atlantic – the value and inviolability of NATO. He not only put the question "why does America need Europe" on the agenda again, but also put it before the Europeans in an ultimatum form.
Ed. Vladislav Belov “On some aspects of the activities of the upper houses of the parliaments of a number of EU countries.” Analytical papers №15, 2017 (№88)
The upper houses of parliaments continue to play an important role in a number of EU countries. Each of them has nuances and differences that may be of interest to the Federation Council of the Russian Federation. The authors analyze these features in Germany, Great Britain, France, Spain, Italy, the Czech Republic and Hungary, and give recommendations that are relevant for the SF of the Russian Federation.
Pavel Kandel “The Balkans: ‘a holiday of disobedience.’” Analytical papers №14, 2017 (№87)
Violent nationalist rhetoric is increasingly heard in the Western Balkans. But it is a mistake to think that there is a smell of gunpowder again. We are talking about traditional ways to achieve short-term political goals, primarily in election campaigns.
Vladimir Vernikov “The old leader is better than the new two: unexpected results of the extraordinary congress of Spanish Socialists." Analytical papers №13, 2017 (№86)
The extraordinary congress of the Socialist Party was repeatedly postponed and finally took place on May 21, 2017. After two consecutive defeats in the parliamentary elections and without the Executive Committee, which was dismissed in October with an almost Bolshevik wording: "For political mistakes in the leadership and opposition to the party", the deep crisis of the PSOE became obvious to everyone. But being at a crossroads in the long search for a new strategy for gaining power and a new leader is an unacceptable situation for the party, evidence of an internal ideological split between the elites of the new generation and the old social-democratic guard led by Fr. Gonzalez.
Valery Zhuravel “Transition of the Arctic Council presidency from the United States to Finland.” Analytical papers №12, 2017 (№85)
The paper summarizes the results of the two years of the US presidency of the Arctic Council. Based on the conceptual foundations of the Finnish Arctic policy and the analysis of the first statements of politicians, an attempt is made to predict the program of the Finnish presidency in 2017-2019, as well as its possible impact on easing tensions in Russian-American and Western European relations and strengthening Russian-Finnish cooperation.
Alexey Sindeev “Lack of alternatives in German elections.” Analytical papers №11, 2017 (№84)
Compared to other EU members, Germany is a happy country: the unemployment rate is about 6%, the expected GDP growth this year is 1.6%, the budget is deficit-free, and at the end of the year, the Ministry of Finance traditionally receives additional tax revenues in excess of the planned one. The Germans were able to accept and house more than 1 million refugees relatively easily, although most of them are not proud of this achievement. The authority and experience of Chancellor Angela Merkel is beyond doubt. And even the fronde-friendly Polish government reacted relatively calmly to the German-backed appointment of the undesirable Donald Tusk as president of the European Council, and Jaroslaw Kaczynski went to a secret meeting with the Chancellor last year in the midst of a campaign of criticism of German hegemony by his Law and Justice party. Donald Trump is also interested in good relations with Germany and even rushed to congratulate Merkel on the victory of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on March 26 in the elections in the Saarland.
The material was prepared by order of Nezavisimaya Gazeta and published on 15.05.2017 in the appendix "Diplomatic Courier" in a series of articles dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the IE RAS.
http://www.ng.ru/courier/2017-05-15/10_6987_frg.html
Elena Ananieva “Brexit: divorce in a European way.” Analytical papers №10, 2017 (№83)
At the end of March 2017, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, sent a letter to Brussels notifying of the entry into force of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which regulates the withdrawal of a member state from the EU. Negotiations have not yet begun, and the parties are already raising the stakes. Having developed negotiating positions, the Government said that Brexit would be tough, that is, with the exit from the European Single Market (ESR) and the Customs Union.
The material was prepared by order of Nezavisimaya Gazeta and published on 24.04.2017 in the appendix "Diplomatic Courier" in a series of articles dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the IE RAS.
http://www.ng.ru/dipkurer/2017-04-24/10_6980_breksit.html
Yuriy Rubinskiy “France on new frontiers.” Analytical papers №9, 2017 (№82)
The campaign before the presidential and parliamentary elections of 2017 in France differs from all the previous ones both in terms of the objects of the election campaign, and in its subjects – the candidates and their parties. Although there are 11 candidates for the post of head of state on the voting lists for the first round, which will be held on April 23, more than half of them can count on only 0.5–1% of the votes. Their participation in the campaign is purely for propaganda purposes, as has happened in all previous elections. The situation is different with the other candidates, who are backed by real political forces.
The material was prepared by order of Nezavisimaya Gazeta and published on 10.04.2017 in the appendix "Diplomatic Courier" in a series of articles dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the IE RAS.
http://www.ng.ru/dipkurer/2017-04-10/9_6970_france.html
Yuriy Borko “Sixty-year-old Europe at a crossroads.” Analytical papers №8, 2017 (№81)
On 25 March 1957, two treaties were signed in Rome, establishing the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community. On 25 March 2017 the European Union celebrated the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties. A solemn anniversary against the backdrop of the most acute crisis in its history. Its tricks are truly incomprehensible.
The material was prepared by order of Nezavisimaya Gazeta and published on 27.03.2017 in the appendix "Diplomatic Courier" in a series of articles dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the IE RAS.
http://www.ng.ru/dipkurer/2017-03-27/9_6958_europ.html
Alexey Gromyko "Brexit: the view from Russia". Analytical papers №3, 2017 (№29)
From a strange word in 2015, neologism «Brexit» turned the next year for Russians as well as for many other nations into a well-understood expression, almost a house-hold name. The looming exit of Britain from the EU long time ago ceased to be a matter of specialized studies. It has acquired many aspects, meanings and interpretations.
Kira Godovanyuk “Vagarities of the British diplomacy.” Analytical papers №7, 2017 (№80)
In the context of the aggravation of Russian-American relations and disagreements over Syria, the head of the British Foreign Ministry canceled a visit to Russia scheduled for April 10. B. Johnson considered it inappropriate to meet with his Russian counterpart, giving the United States the opportunity to independently convey to Moscow a unified position of the Western countries on the "Syrian issue". Earlier, members of the British Parliament made an attempt to analyze bilateral relations and developed a number of recommendations to the government, among which they proposed to intensify political contacts with Moscow.
Alexey Gromyko "How to reduce risks of military confrontation?" Analytical papers №2, 2017 (№28)
Vladimir Vernikov “The crisis of the political system or the challenge of the time?” Analytical papers №6, 2017 (№79)
Spain's political system has changed more in the past year than it has in more than 40 years of post-Franco democratic transition. After the parliamentary elections in September 2015, for the first time in the country's history, no political party won the necessary majority to form a one-party government. The "soap opera" that then was initiated by Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez in search for coalition partners turned out to be so protracted and fruitless that it led Spain to an extraordinary campaign to the ballot boxes. As expected, the new elections gave the same result: the People's Party (NP) won the most seats, significantly ahead of the Socialists and the two newcomers to the parliament who had already declared themselves after the first elections – the parties Podemos ("We can!") and Ciudadanos ("Citizens"), but they were not enough.
Anatoliy Krasikov “Pope Francis and the challenges of the twenty-first century.” Analytical papers №5, 2017 (№78)
The Eurocentrism of Catholicism, the largest religious institution on the planet (one and a half billion earthlings), has gone down in history. With the election to the Vatican throne of a native of the "Third World" Pope Francis, the Roman Church, while retaining in its name a reference to its historical roots, has established its own ecumenical character. But how does it see other religions and humanity as a whole in the near and more distant future? And how do others see it?
Mikhail Nosov “Russia and Europe in the context of American elections.” Analytical papers №4, 2017 (№77)
The end of the year is a good occasion and a good opportunity to evaluate the past and think about the future. The year 2016 has generated a lot of anxiety and positive expectations. I would like to highlight two events. The most important political dominant was Russia's desire to gain the status of a great power. The second global event was the results of the US presidential election and the election of Donald Trump, who promised to "make America great again". Thus, the two states that were ideological opponents and fought for world leadership throughout the second half of the twentieth century, once again proclaimed in one form or another the idea of returning to their former greatness.
Kira Godovanyuk “On the ‘special relationships’ between the UK and the US in an era of change.” Analytical papers №3, 2017 (№76)
Washington after D. Trump's inauguration. There has been much said about how precious ‘special relationships’ between two countries are. At the same time, the decree on amendments to the US migration legislation caused a wave of protest sentiments around the world, including the UK. In such circumstances, the British government has to look for additional arguments to convince its own electorate of the correctness of its approach to the United States. Meanwhile, on the eve of negotiations on leaving the EU, London is particularly interested in rapprochement with Washington and its support in the international arena.
Pavel Kandel “The Balkans. Déjà vu.” Analytical papers №2, 2017 (№75)
Violent nationalist rhetoric is increasingly heard in the Western Balkans. But it is a mistake to think that there is a smell of gunpowder again. We are talking about traditional ways to achieve short-term political goals, primarily in election campaigns.
Report of IE RAS (January 2017) The EU Global Strategy. A View from Russia.
The report analyzes the new EU Global Strategy.
Vladimir Shveytzer, Vasiliy Gribovskiy “Austria: the 2016 presidential marathon”. Analytical papers №1, 2017 (№74)
The 2016 presidential elections in Austria revealed ill-preparedness of the leading parties – the People's Party and the Social Democratic Party-to fight for the highest state office. N. Hofer, a representative of the Eurosceptic Austrian Freedom Party, and A. van der Bellen, an ecologist, took center stage. An informal coalition of all supporters of European integration from different political camps has led to the victory of A. van der Bellen. At the same time, the authors believe that the increased popularity of N. Hofer reflects a deep and comprehensive crisis of the Austrian society.
