Yuri Rubinskiy "France: «the second act» of E. Macron". Analytical papers IE RAS №32, 2019 (№183)
The new political season in France, that started in autumn 2019, is marked by summing up the results of the first half of President Macron’s term and defining his future plans. The head of state is determined to maintain the course for radical renewal of economic and political system of the Fifth republic, but promises to considerably soften the methods for attaining its goals, taking into account the social crises of the previous period, to properly prepare for the next presidential election in 2020.
Vladimir Vernikov "Portugese socialists held their power". Analytical papers IE RAS №31, 2019 (№182)
In the parliamentary elections in Portugal (held on October 6, 2019) the Socialist Party won with more than 30% of the votes. Such a convincing result was predicted by political observers after four years of socialists in power and the obvious success in overcoming the economic crisis. The party has good chances to create a stable minority government in alliance with other leftist forces – and in fact repeat the scenario of previous legislature, which lasted the entire term allotted to it by the Constitution after elections in 2015.
Natalia Plevako "On Trump’s idea of purchasing Greenland". Analytical papers IE RAS №30, 2019 (№181)
D. Trump's intention to buy Greenland caused a wide response in world politics. An immediate negative reaction was received from both Denmark and Greenland. D. Trump took it as affront to the United States and canceled his visit to Denmark. However, the reasons for the American interest in buying the island are numerous: from geopolitical and strategic to economic and political: Greenland is rich in minerals, some of which are in great demand now. In addition, the "trade war" with China stimulates the US to neutralize its growing influence on the island.
Yuri Rubinskiy "Russia – France: the dialogue continues". Analytical papers IE RAS №29, 2019 (№180)
President Macron’s appeal to rethink in positive terms the relations with Russia was a starting point for several contacts on different levels narrowing two parties approaches to several conflict situations. But the mixed reaction to the president’s initiative from France’s partners in EU, NATO and a part of its own political and administrative elite can limit practical results of the dialogue between Paris and Moscow.
Elena Ananieva "Britain on the edge of legitimacy". Analytical papers IE RAS №28, 2019 (№179)
Theresa May tried to strike a balance between the Brexiteers and Bremainers being aware of her inability to hold to power and keep the Conservative party united if she takes one side. The new PM B. Johnson decided to weaken the Tory Bremainers even sacrificing parliamentary majority. The UK constitutional arrangements are stretched, deepening the political crisis. Will the PM achieve his goal – Brexit on 31 October and victory at a n imminent snap election?
Victor Mironenko "Parliamentary elections in Ukraine". Analytical papers IE RAS №27, 2019 (№178)
The parliamentary elections in Ukraine were even more unexpected than the presidential ones. They confirmed several trends. Ukrainian society is growing up, consolidating, affirming itself in its European choice. It demonstrates the ability to learn from own mistakes, frees itself from the illusions and delusions of past years. This creates a real opportunity to overcome the systematic crisis. It does not promise to be quick, or easy, or safe. To promote this trend is in the interests of both Russia and the European Union. The author analyses features of the elections, their role and significance for development of political and public processes in Ukraine.
Vladimir Vernikov "Will the left-wing government form in Spain?" Analytical papers IE RAS №26, 2019 (№177)
The author analyzes the long process of seeking consent for the formation of a left-wing government by Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which won parliamentary elections on April 28, 2019 (123 seats) and the left-wing Podemos party (“We Can!”, 42 seats). But almost three months of meetings between leaders and the teams they formed turned out to be fruitless. Among the numerous reasons there are mutual distrust and the socialists’ doubt of the possibility of coordinated work of the government in solving complex domestic political problems, first of all, the Catalan one. The ending is sad: the socialists were twice defeated in a vote of confidence in their one-party government. The fourth in four years parliamentary elections loom on the horizon, if by the next round of voting, September 23, 2019, both leaders do not compromise.
Alexander Shumilin "Will the European flotilla breach the Persian Gulf?". Analytical papers IE RAS №25, 2019 (№176)
The author provides analysis of the causes of abrupt escalation of standoff in the Persian Gulf between Iran and the U.S. as well as Iran and the UK. Having seized the British-flagged vessel Stena Impero on July 19, Iran crossed the red lines in its relationship with the Western countries. Against this background London’s trying to create a European-led maritime grouping which is supposed to be independent from the US to ensure the freedom of passage in the Strait of Hormuz. The author concludes that the creation of such a flotilla, which is perceived by Tehran as a threat to its interests in the region, is going to be a new point of tension between two sides as well as the EU’s new step on the path of its distancing from the JCPoA.
Natalia Kondratieva "Elections of the President of the European Commission: how it could have been and how it was in 2019". Analytical papers IE RAS №24, 2019 (№175)
The author investigates the origin of Spitzenkandidat Procedure, aimed at promoting candidates of European Parliament parties to the post of Chairman of the European Commission. The author confirms the hypothesis of permanent deficit of democratic control in activities of the European Union by the failure of Spitzenkandidat procedure in 2019. The paper highlights possible reasons for this failure – unsuitable candidates, imperfection of the procedure, loose composition of the European Parliament – as the initial hypothesis for political scientists who will give a detailed assessment of this campaign.
Olga Potemkina "Who killed the Spitzenkandidat?". Analytical papers IE RAS №23, 2019 (№174)
The article analyses the process of new EU Commission President’s nomination and election, as well as other EU leaders. Based on results of the extraordinary EU summit (June 30 - July 1, 2019), which "buried" the Spitzenkandidaten system, as well as the debates in the European Parliament, the author concludes that not only heads of state and government, but also European political parties and MEPs, are responsible for failure of nominating a leading candidate.
Elena Ananieva "Will the new British PM have the trust of the Parliament?". Analytical papers IE RAS №22, 2019 (№173)
The name of the new leader of the Tory party is to be announced on July 23. He is to succeed Th. May as the PM. According to constitutional arrangements the predecessor PM is to recommend the successor to the monarch on the condition that the new PM «commands the confidence of the House». Given the precarious situation in the House of Commons could there appear other options?
Vladislav Belov "Acute party and political trends in Germany". Analytical papers IE RAS №21, 2019 (№172)
Further decline of the popularity of CDU, CSU and SPD; rise of the rating of the «green» party; upcoming land elections in Saxony and Brandenburg in September, in Thuringia in October; discussions on growth of right-wing extremism and radicalism (caused by the murder of communal politician V. Ljubke); internal feuds in the Alternative for Germany; health problems of the Federal Chancellor A. Merkel; intrigue with the choice of U. von der Leinen as the EU Commission Chairman – discussions of these topics in June-July 2019 became the focus of political discourse in Germany. Apparently, the traditional summer break in German politics will not take place this year. The author analyzes current party political tendencies in Germany and gives a forecast of further developments.
Vladimir Shveytzer "European Parliament elections: the results". Analytical papers IE RAS №20, 2019 (№171)
The European Parliament elections in the last 40 years have been interesting not only as an important event within the European Union. They allow to assess the changes in party-political space of the Old World and understand the situational disposition in European politics. A voter visiting these elections every 5 years is guided not only by purely national criteria, but, to a certain extent, by the general European context, keeping in mind what’s going on outside the borders of our continent.
Natalia Plevako "Parliamentary elections in Denmark". Analytical papers IE RAS №19, 2019 (№170)
The parliamentary elections in Denmark on 5 June 2019 brought victory to the Social democratic party, which tries to form a minority government. Now M. Frederiksen, Chairman of the party, conducts negotiations with allies in "the red block". The main issues, brought up by the elections, were: immigration policy, climate change and welfare reform.
Alexander Shumilin "The EU and Turkey: «values» mismatch". Analytical papers IE RAS №18, 2019 (№169)
This paper is dedicated to a number of hot issues pertaining to the growing tension between Turkey and EU. Special attention is paid to the upcoming deliveries of the Russian S-400 systems. The author is tending to conclude that with any outcome of the S-400 deal the positive trend in Russia-Turkey’s relationship must be maintained and developed through cooperation in long-term projects, such as the Turkish gas stream and construction of nuclear electric station.
Victor Mironenko "The expected unexpectedness: what have the presidential elections in Ukraine demonstrated?" Analytical papers IE RAS №17, 2019 (№168)
Presidential elections in Ukraine had the expected unexpected result. Expected due to the fatigue of society from corrupt practice, social and economic troubles, confrontation in Donbass. Unexpected as never before the winner had so much dominance over his predecessor-contender. The author analyzes election results and predicts development of the situation in Ukraine.
Valery Zhuravel "Transfer of chairmanship in the Arctic council from Finland to Iceland: results and cooperation prospects". Analytical papers IE RAS №16, 2019 (№167)
This policy brief summarizes the results of Finnish chairmanship over the Arctic council (AC) in 2017-2019 and notes their positive nature. At the same time, the author emphasizes that as a result of the 11th ministerial meeting of AC in the Finnish city of Rovaniemi, for the first time since the establishment of AC, its members failed to agree and adopt a joint Declaration. Taking into account the conceptual foundation of the Islandic Arctic policy, first statements of experts and politicians, as well as the results of the 5th meeting of “Arctic: Territory of Dialogue” international forum, the author attempts to predict the program of Icelandic chairmanship over the Council in 2019-2021. The chances for the program to ease the existing tensions in relations between Russia and the United States, and the West as a whole, are considered as well.
Natalia Govorova "Industry and innovation in the EU in the context of sustainable development goals". Analytical papers IE RAS №15, 2019 (№166)
UN Sustainable Development Goals are the cornerstone of economic, social, environmental progress in every country and the world as a whole. All UN SDGs are interlinked; the European Union regularly analyzes their implementation and, within its competence, acts in many directions. With regard to industry, innovation and infrastructure, the European Union as a whole has achieved little success so far.
Yuri Rubinskiy "the social crisis in France: results and prospects". Analytical papers IE RAS №14, 2019 (№165)
Massive protest movement against the government’s economic and social policy incited president E. Macron to reconsider some aspects of his radical reformist program with which he was elected two years ago. But these measures affect the methods and style of government rather than the aims of the head of State and are not sufficient to overcome the crisis of confidence between the political power and the important section of civil society which can affect the results of the European Parliament elections in May 2019.
Vladimir Shveytzer "The European Parliament on the eve of elections". Analytical papers IE RAS №13, 2019 (№164)
In 2018 - early 2019, the European Parliament (EP) significantly intensified its work. The EP sessions addressed issues of defense policy, energy, EU relations with Russia and the United States. Highly relevant was the topic of Brexit. The issues of changing the format of EP's activities as part of the EU political structures were discussed. Positions of individual fractions and groups in the EP in the context of upcoming new elections were relevant for the EP.
Kira Godovanyuk "«The Golden era» of Britain-China relations. Quo vadis?" Analytical papers IE RAS №12, 2019 (№163)
Nowadays in the UK as in many Western countries discussions on the future relationship with China are taking place. Part of the political establishment is calling to review the “golden age” the UK-Sino relationship. Supporters of the independent trading policy on the post-brexit stage are considering Beijing as a key economic partner for the UK. The Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Commons recommended developing a clear and comprehensive policy towards China by 2020. Meanwhile Britain attempts to bolster its strategic and economic positions in the Indo-Pacific.
Natalia Plevako "Parliamentary elections in Finland 2019" Analytical papers IE RAS №11, 2019 (№162)
Finland is currently in the process of forming a new government. The social democratic party with the highest number of votes is negotiating with all parliamentary parties to form a coalition. Negotiations will be difficult, as no party won a majority in the elections, and the success of the nationalist party "True Finns" raises the question of whether other parties are ready for possible cooperation in the government.
Lyubov Bisson "The movement of «yellow vests»: importance for France". Analytical papers IE RAS №10, 2019 (№161)
The protest movement of "yellow vests" in France highlighted social cleavages that have been observed in the country for more than one year. The failure of traditional political parties and lack of citizens' trust in political institutions create a new agenda, which, according to the author, will have long-term consequences for the social and political life of France.
Elena Ananieva "Will Britain hold the European Parliament elections?" Analytical papers IE RAS №9, 2019 (№160)
The EU parliamentary elections in the UK remain an open question. Nevertheless, political parties are preparing for them – some with fear, some with expectations. Election manifestos will present a problem for the split leading parties. Taking part in the EP elections will not benefit the Labour party and especially the Tory party. Meanwhile small parties are gaining ground.
Yuri Rubinskiy, Alexey Sindeev "Macron and Kramp-Karrenbauer: French-German dialogue on Europe’s future". Analytical papers IE RAS №8, 2019 (№159)
The article analyzes the proposals made by French President E. Macron for reforming the EU. These proposals are compared with the response of A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, chairman of the CDU. The authors believe that the Macron initiative has not only international, but also domestic political reasons. The success of Macron's proposals depends on the support of the German side. Therefore, Macron is probably forced to continue to organize cooperation with the Federal Republic within the framework of the Meseberg plan.
Elena Alekseenkova "«Via della seta»: Italy joined the Chinese «Belt and Road Initiative»". Analytical papers IE RAS №7, 2019 (№158)
On March 22, 2019, during the state visit of Xi Jinping to Italy, a memorandum was signed on the accession of Italy to the Chinese “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). Despite 13 EU countries had signed similar memorandums earlier, the importance of the Italian decision is difficult to overestimate, for Italy will be the first country of G7 and the EU founding countries to officially confirm their readiness to participate in the BRI. The article analyzes the main arguments of the Italian government, and also draws conclusions about the possible causes and consequences of the decision.
Vladimir Vernikov "The expected unexpectedness". Analytical papers IE RAS №6, 2019 (№157)
Since March 5, there is no government nor working parliament in Spain. And it seems like the country doesn’t need them. Having witnessed this lack of power in Madrid for quite a time, one comes to the conclusion that people got tired of the political squabbles, corruption scandals and parliament’s paralysis. Now on the eve of general elections on April 28, Spanish people are relaxed doing their routine not caring about what is happaneing in big politics. But it is just the first impression, because in the invisible reality the socio-economic life in the country has stopped. Political activity centers around party leaders’ self- advertisement and promises, should they come to power, to put the economy in order and to keep the unity of Spain against the threat of Catalan separatism.
Igor Scherbak "The European Union in search of crisis regulation in Venezuela". Analytical papers IE RAS №5, 2019 (№156)
The acute crisis in Venezuela accentuated again the problem of effectiveness of international mediation in solving complex internal conflicts in key regions of the world. The paper analyses the EU strategy on managing the crises through establishment of the international contact group on Venezuela.
Vladislav Belov "The new industrial policy in Germany – the return to dirigizm?". Analytical papers IE RAS №4, 2019 (№155)
In early February 2019 the Minister of Economy and Energy of Germany P. Altmayer presented the project of national industrial strategy for public discussion. The German strategy has to be coordinated with a similar policy of the European Union. One of its keynotes is the need of effective state support of industrial sector. Without this state intervention it is impossible to secure long-term competitiveness of the German and European industrial companies in global markets. This paper discusses the strategy’s main ideas and mechanisms of their realization, including within the German- French cooperation.
Vladislav Belov "The economic and political tandem of Berlin and Paris: acute challenges and tasks". Analytical papers IE RAS №3, 2019 (№154)
In the last decades the German-French cooperation became the most important part of the Western European integration. President E. Macron focuses on strengthening Berlin-Paris tandem and the role of France in it. By his initiative, in January 2019 a new contract on cooperation and integration was signed with Germany. In early February the tandem safely passed a test for durability. This paper analyzes current economic and political cooperation of two EU leaders in the conditions of growing Euroscepticism and upcoming European Parliament elections.
Elena Alekseenkova "Italy and France: fundamental disagreement on the EU’s future". Analytical papers IE RAS №2, 2019 (№153)
With the coming to power in Italy of the new “government of change”, relations between Rome and Paris are constantly deteriorating. The article discusses the essence of disagreements between Italy and France in the recent past and at present and draws conclusions about the risks which this conflict may entail for the development of the EU and prospects of the European integration.
Kira Godovanyuk "The heat in British parliament – a way out of the dead end or a trap for May?". Analytical papers IE RAS №1, 2019 (№152)
Anticipated troubles with the ratification of the EU withdrawal agreement in January 2019 resulted in a confidence vote and new political maneuvers of legislative and executive branches. The majority of conservatives and DUP MPs (confidence and supply partners) along with labours, liberal democrats and SNP don’t support Brexit deal negotiated by Th. May. Having two months left to deliver Brexit, the UK government is seeking to find consensus in Parliament in order to ratify the agreement. House of Commons approved the amendment rejecting no-deal scenario and enabling Cabinet to renegotiate Irish backstop – the most controversial point of the agreement.
