Jahan Pollyýewa “Post-truth: there are more questions than answers.” Analytical papers №43, 2016 (№73)
Referendums in the UK on membership in the European Union and in Italy on constitutional reforms, the victory of D. Trump in the US presidential election have become bright events of the year 2016. They are often compared and collated, but the underlying reasons that caused them, real, and not far-fetched differences and similarities, have not yet had time to become the subject of careful analysis. What are the reasons for such phenomena? How will relations between America and Europe develop further? Why did most of the sociological forecasts turn out to be inaccurate? The search for answers to these questions is just beginning, since the events that caused them began to occur only six months ago.
Alexey Budargin “Northern Ireland after Northern Ireland after the UK's EU membership referendum and Unionist party conferences.” Analytical papers №42, 2016 (№72)
The balance of power after the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, the referendum on Britain's membership in the EU and the party conference season is a consequence of the separation of the leading unionist parties, due to the development of civil nationalism as opposed to ethno-confessional. The Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein remain in the lead, and Northern Ireland's two-party government remains effective.
Kira Godovanyuk “ ‘The Syrian issue’ in Russian-British relations.” Analytical papers №41, 2016 (№71)
Russian-British relations are experiencing another round of tension. In October, during a parliamentary debate on the situation in Syria, British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson directly accused Russia of involvement in the destruction of a humanitarian convoy en route to Aleppo, demanded that Moscow be held accountable for the mass killings of civilians and supported demonstrations near the Russian Embassy in London. The Russian side has denied all the accusations. Against this background, the celebrations on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the Northern Convoys, the visit of Patriarch Kirill to Britain and the meeting with Elizabeth II became a thread connecting bilateral relations.
Natalia Kondratieva “On the fate of the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiations.” Analytical papers №40, 2016 (№70)
Another postponement of the signing of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership( TTIP), and then the protectionist election slogans of the new US President D. Putin. Trump was given a reason to think about the effectiveness and future of the negotiations between the EU and the United States. It seems that the European Commission (EC) is interested in continuing the negotiations. But the differences in logical approaches to market regulation and competition on different sides of the Atlantic limit the subject of further discussion. This requires a reassessment of the Russia-EU dialogue.
On the main party-political processes in European states. Analytical papers №39, 2016 (№69)
In many European countries, important changes in the party-political processes are expected in the mid-term due to various factors, including the growth of protest moods, presidential and parliamentary elections. Leading scientists of the IE RAS give their forecast of the development of events.
Alexey Budargin “UK Party Conference Season: Brexit as nationalists ' trump card.” Analytical papers №38, 2016 (№68)
In the light of the outcome of the referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, the nationalists of Scotland and Wales have gained a unique advantage – the space for political maneuvering between the United Kingdom and the European Union. In a new phase of British politics, the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Plaid Cymru (Welsh Party) are renewing their priorities and mobilising their ranks. In this regard, it is important for the British party and political landscape to analyze the results of their autumn conferences, assess the current status of the parties and their tasks at the national and regional level.
Vladimir Vernikov “Spain: the government with its hands tied.” Analytical papers №37, 2016 (№67)
Spain has finally got a government: On October 29, 2016, the lower House of Parliament (Congress of Deputies) approved the program of the new cabinet of the leader of the People's Party (NP) Mariano Rajoy in the second round of voting by a simple majority. 170 deputies, including the populists, the party ‘Citizens’ (‘Ciudadanos’) and the Canary Coalition has voted ‘for’. The Socialists abstained in an absolute majority, but some deputies from Catalonia voted ‘against’ together with the irreconcilable opponents of the NP, the party ‘We Can’ (‘Podemos’) and the Basque and Catalan nationalists. On October 31, the leader of the NP adjured as head of the Cabinet at a ceremony at the Zarzuela Palace in front of King Philip VI. Such an outcome of the 10-month political standoff after two consecutive elections was not foreseen by any political science guru.
Alexey Budargin “UK Party Conference Season: new priorities of the antagonists.” Analytical papers №36, 2016 (№66)
The autumn party conferences are of interest from the perspective of the characteristics of the political landscape, potential and balance of power both in the center and in the regions of the UK. First of all, this applies to three political forces: the Liberal Democrat Party (LDP), the Green Party of England and Wales, and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). Against the background of Brexit, the current directions of their development are interesting: LDP-strengthening the rhetoric and attacking the positions of the Labor Party; Green Party-updating the image and forming alliances; UKIP – a new self-identification.
Sergey Goncharenko “Black Sea region in Beijing's plans to recreate the Great Silk Road.” Analytical papers №35, 2016 (№65)
In September-October 2013, the Chinese leadership launched an initiative to develop the infrastructure of countries through which it is possible to ensure the movement of Chinese goods to Western Europe. One of these areas was the intention to widely develop trade and foreign economic relations through the countries of Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea region. As a result, there was a program that actually recreates the Great Silk Road of antiquity.
Viktor Mironenko “On some aspects of the annual address of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko.” Analytical papers №34, 2016 (№64)
The latest message of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, along with repeated statements from message to message, contains a number of relatively new stories that deserve careful analysis. First of all, we are talking about how the Ukrainian president sees the achievements of the country's citizens over the years of independence, what is the role of the state in this, its further evolution, what is the ratio of internal and external threats to Ukraine's security. The author suggests using a new, more convenient for analysis, periodization of the modern history of Ukraine, reflecting the successive existence of the three republics since 1917, and considering what has been happening in Ukraine since 2014 as an integral process of the formation of the Fourth Republic. Among other things, the author concludes that the solution of the "Ukrainian problem" can only be political, will require a long time and an appropriate international context.
Dmitriy Danilov “Russian interests in the context of presidential elections in Moldova and Transnistria.” Analytical papers №33, 2016 (№63)
A characteristic and significant feature of the current political year is the holding of almost parallel presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova (RM) – October 30, 2016 and in the Dniestrian Moldovan Republic (DMR) – December 11, 2016. At the same time, it should be considered that in December 2015, a new Supreme Council of the PMR was formed. Prior to this (in March 2015), a new Bashkan (head) of the autonomous territorial entity of Gagauzia within the Republic of Moldova was elected, and elections to the People's Assembly of Gagauzia are scheduled for November 20, 2016. Relations with Russia, undoubtedly, remain the most important in the electoral struggle of various political forces both in the Republic of Moldova and in Transnistria. And it is important for Russia to determine its interests and policy prospects in the Moldovan-Transdniestrian direction, taking into account the current electoral cycle, especially including the agenda of the Transdniestrian settlement.
Lyubov Bisson “New proposals of the European Commission in the field of legal immigration.” Analytical papers №32, 2016 (№62)
EU countries risk being left on the sidelines in the global race to attract minds, and the economic and demographic situation leaves no other choice and requires the EU to make more flexible decisions to reduce barriers to access to the labor market for third-country citizens. This is evidenced by the European Commission's proposal of 7 June 2016 on the reform of the Blue Card Directive and the implementation of the Action Plan for the Integration of Third – country Immigrants. However, the further progress of these initiatives depends directly on the Member States.
Olga Potemkina “The EU Commission's ‘New Partnership’ is an ‘ambitious plan’ with unclear prospects.” Analytical papers №31, 2016 (№61)
The initiative of the "new partnership" with African States and neighboring countries, presented by the EU Commission on June 7, 2016, caused a mixed reaction from the European public. The main problem of the "ambitious plan" is its implementation. Will the Commission be able to attract funding from member states and private investors to achieve its goals, and will the EU not have to cut its development policy budget to stop migration flows to Europe?
Lyubov Shishelina “On the Slovak Presidency of the Council of the EU.” Analytical papers №30, 2016 (№60)
On 1 July 2016, the presidency of the Council of the EU passed to the Slovak Republic for the first time in history. It will remain in this position until December 31, 2016. And although it is clear that after the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, this position has somewhat lost its significance in favor of the permanent bodies of the European Unio. Nevertheless, Slovakia has an undeniable chance to leave a mark in the history of managing European integration.
Anatoliy Krasikov “Ecumenical and Russian Orthodoxy in search of identity.” Analytical papers №29, 2016 (№59)
Time takes us further and further away from the historical event that the Pan – Orthodox Council was supposed to be – following the February meeting of the Patriarch of Moscow with the Pope. What prevented the forum, which has been waiting for more than 1,200 years, from taking place? And are the "differences of opinion" within ecumenical Orthodoxy surmountable in the conditions of competition between two "super-churches": the first in honor of the Patriarchate of Constantinople and the Russian Orthodox Church?
Elena Vodopyanova “New trends in the EU student community.” Analytical papers №28, 2016 (№58)
The European Union today has about 4,000 universities and other structures of higher education, where more than 19 million students study. Analysis of trends in the evolution of the European student community in the information age shows that the main changes occur in two dimensions: value and organizational.
Alexander Kamkin “German-Turkish relations through the prism of migration crisis.” Analytical papers №27, 2016 (№57)
Erdogan's harsh reaction to the failed putsch and the ongoing repression against the Kurdish population led to attempts by some German politicians to rethink Ankara's role in the five-year-old war in Syria and the migration crisis. However, instead of a constructive discussion, it turned out to be another diplomatic scandal, which risks aggravating relations between Berlin and Ankara to the limit and endangering the refugee agreement between the EU and Turkey.
Valentin Fedorov “Angela Merkel's harmful actions.” Analytical papers №26, 2016 (№56)
The unification of Germany in the 20th century had contradictory consequences for Europe. On the one hand, the historical injustice was eliminated, which was expressed in the fragmentation of the country into three parts - the Federal Republic of Germany, the German Democratic Republic, West Berlin. On the other hand, in Europe the preponderance of the German factor has increased with all its pros and cons.
Elena Ananieva “Britain has no eternal enemies.” Analytical papers №25, 2016 (№55)
Over the past 10 years, Russian-British relations have experienced dramatic ups and downs, demonstrating a struggle in the political circles of the United Kingdom between "idealists" and "realists". New British Prime Minister T. May is ready to start a dialogue with Russian President V. Putin. It is too early to forecast the prospects for cooperation between the two countries.
Yuriy Rubinskiy “German-Polish relations and the ‘Weimar Triangle.’” Analytical papers №24, 2016 (№54)
25 years ago, a mechanism for regular consultations between Poland, France and Germany on major international issues was established. It was named the "Weimar Triangle". The effectiveness of its smooth functioning depends on the changing balance of interests and forces of the participants, primarily within the framework of German-Polish relations.
Elena Ananieva “Modernization of ‘Trident’ to reimburse Brexit.” Analytical papers №23, 2016 (№53)
The British Parliament voted to modernize the “Trident” nuclear system. This issue has generated serious internal political differences with foreign policy implications. Moscow expressed concern about the decision of the parliament and the position of Prime Minister T. May.
Vladimir Vernikov “How long is blackout in Spain?” Analytical papers №22, 2016 (№52)
Early parliamentary elections were held in Spain at the end of June 2016. Their results are disappointing in their predictability: none of the leading political parties that entered parliament again managed to achieve an absolute majority to form a one-party government, and the country once again found itself in limbo for several months. Now there will be the formation of parliamentary factions, the difficult choice of the chairman and working bodies, and then the search for a party leader who would be willing to rush into the maelstrom of negotiations in search of an alliance and allies to create a coalition government of the majority or even a minority government, with known political preferences or dislikes.
Ludmila Babynina “The Forgotten Referendum.” Analytical papers №21, 2016 (№51)
Referendums have become a frequent occurrence in the countries of the European Union. At the same time, complex issues of integration development are often put to the vote, the deep meaning of which is not always clear to the population, but which determine the future of the EU and the place of specific countries in it.
Kirill Gusev “On the vulnerability of the Russian economy.” Analytical papers №20, 2016 (№50)
For more than two years, the Russian economy has been living under Western sanctions, which, along with a sharp drop in world oil prices, have since repeatedly served as the "official reason" for the depreciation of the Russian ruble. At the same time, despite the attempts of the country's financial authorities to "explain" to its citizens that they should now be concerned not with the exchange rate of the ruble, but with the rate of inflation reflecting the growth of domestic prices in the national currency, most Russians still understand external shocks as events that lead to new falls in the ruble exchange rate.
Andrzej Habarta “Brexit concequences for Poland.” Analytical papers №19, 2016 (№49)
Recently, we have witnessed the popularization of the institution of referendum when making important decisions within the European Union. In 2016 alone, a referendum was held in Holland, at which the residents of this country had to express their opinion on the EU's agreement with Ukraine; at the end of June, the residents of Great Britain were deciding on the membership of their state in the EU. In the fall, a referendum will be held in Hungary on the consent or disagreement of Hungarian citizens with the mechanism for distributing quotas for the resettlement of migrants within the EU.
Alexey Budargin “Floors of British Politics: Perspectives of the United Kingdom Independence Party.” Analytical papers №18, 2016 (№48)
On 23 June 2016, a referendum was held in the UK on the country's membership in the European Union. The dramatic period of cross-party, cross-regional, cross-social confrontation between the Brexit and RemaIN campaigns is over. Democracy won, Brexit won: a decision was made by a majority of 51.9% of the vote to leave the UK from the EU.
Valentin Fedorov “Relevant lessons: no unilateral concessions.” Analytical papers №17, 2016 (№47)
The policy of checks and balances should, in theory, ensure a balance of interests of the parties involved. This balance, however, is often upset for various reasons. Internationally, the ambitions of sovereign subjects, their attempts to obtain disproportionately large benefits in one area or another, are making themselves felt. As Mao Zedong put it, "Politics is bloodless war, and war is bloody politics."
Alexey Gromyko “The day that changed Europe.” Analytical papers №16, 2016 (№46)
"Shock and Awe" - this was the name of the US and British military invasion of Iraq, which shook the international order to its foundations. The British Eurosceptics can give the same name to the operation to withdraw their country from the European Union ("Brexit" - from the English. "Britain" and "exit"). London and Brussels are shocked. Awe gripped Brussels in the face of an unprecedented political crisis. Recently, Greece's exit from the eurozone ("grexit"), but not from the European Union, was considered unacceptable and dangerous for all 28 EU member states. Now the second largest economy of the organization, a member of the UN Security Council, a nuclear power and a close ally of the United States has decided to leave it.
Elena Ananieva “Brexit: simple solutions to complex issues create difficulties.” Analytical papers №15, 2016 (№45)
The ancient Greek philosopher Menedemos was once asked the question: "Have you stopped beating your father?" A simple answer of "yes" or "no" is impossible to give. It seems that the British were also asked to give a simple answer to a complex question.
Lyubov Shishelina “Relations between the UK and the Visegrad Four before and after the British referendum.” Analytical papers №14, 2016 (№44)
The British referendum on the country's membership in the EU was the strongest sobering moment for the European Union since the adoption and implementation of the Lisbon Treaty, which replaced the single constitution. Recall that the adoption of the treaty was also slowed down in the British Isles – but in Ireland – and especially persistently in Central Europe (CE), where it had at least two strong and charismatic opponents – Czech President Vaclav Klaus and Polish President Lech Kaczynski. Then, under active pressure from Brussels, which agreed to make concessions to the intractable new members, the treaty passed.
Natalia Govorova “Comprehensive Arctic policy of the EU.” Analytical papers №13, 2016 (№43)
The European Union, unlike Russia, Canada, the United States, Norway and Greenland (the territory of Denmark, which is not part of the EU) does not have the coastline of the Arctic Ocean, but is inextricably linked with the Arctic geographically, historically and economically, and considers itself responsible for its fate. The EU's policy towards the region has been consistently expanded and deepened in recent years. The result was the comprehensive Arctic Policy of the European Union, presented by the European Commission on 27 April 2016.
Elena Ananieva “Brexit: who is to blame?” Analytical papers №12, 2016 (№42)
The British government said that Britain's exit from the EU would only benefit Russia. The Kremlin did not express its position, having nothing to do with the referendum. However, the consequences of a possible British exit from the EU are not indifferent to Russia.
Elena Ananieva “The British-German-French Triangle: a view from the British Isles.” Analytical papers №11, 2016 (№41)
The national defense strategy and foreign policy of the conservative government of David Cameron is based on maintaining "special relations" with the United States, active participation in NATO, defense cooperation with France and Germany, countering ISIS (a terrorist organization – banned in the Russian Federation) and the "Russian threat". At the same time, the inter- and intra-party struggle over the referendum on Britain's membership in the EU is escalating in the country, which may lead to a change in the leadership of the Tory party and an adjustment of the country's foreign policy, regardless of the outcome of the referendum.
Pavel Kanel “Are there colorless ‘color revolutions’?” Analytical papers №10, 2016 (№40)
In Russia, many people tend to perceive any mass anti-government protests as another "color revolution". Indeed, the United States and its European allies have done a lot to shape this worldview. But the wave of mass demonstrations in the countries of South-Eastern Europe in 2013-15 showed something else: the possibility of using the technology of "color revolutions" not by external forces, but by internal opposition to achieve their own goals.
Olga Potemkina “Strengthening the threat of terrorism in Europe and the response of the European Union.” Analytical papers №9, 2016 (№39)
Analytical papers №9, 2016 "Strengthening the threat of terrorism in Europe and the response of the European Union" is published on the website of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The author is Olga Potemkina, Doctor of Political Science, Head of the Department of European Integration Studies, IE RAS.
Anatoliy Bazhan “Creating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership: implications for Russia.” Analytical papers №8, 2016 (№38)
Currently, two projects of international integration associations are being implemented, which pose real and significant threats to Russia's economic security. These are projects for the creation of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Alexey Sindeev “The European Union: development prospects.” Analytical papers №7, 2016 (№37)
George Friedman wrote back in 2009 in the book "It is unreasonable to talk of Europe as if it were one entity. It is not, in spite of the existence of the European Union. Europe consists of a series of sovereign and contentious nation- states… Europe is in benign chaos... Internally, Europe is inert, still in shock over its losses...." Almost seven years after the publication of the book, the number of pessimists, radical and moderate, both among politicians and scientists, regarding the future of the EU is constantly increasing, so the analysis of its development prospects is relevant.
Alexey Gromyko, Vladislav Belov “The Normandy format and the Munich Security Conference: a controversial outcome.” Analytical papers №6, 2016 (№36)
Cautious hopes for progress in the Normandy Four negotiations during the Munich Conference were not fulfilled. No specific agreements seem to have been reached. The main result was the confirmation of the participants ' readiness to hold the next meeting in March.
Alexey Gromyko, Natalia Plevako “On the possible accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO.” Analytical papers №5, 2016 (№35)
Over the past two years, the topic of Sweden and Finland joining NATO has been widely discussed in these countries, becoming one of the most important issues on the political agenda along with immigration. Swedish and Finnish political scientists believe that the reason for the growing attention to it is a response to the activity of Russian foreign policy, in particular, in the northern region. At the same time, there are significant nuances in the forms and content of this controversy in both countries of Northern Europe.
Anatoliy Krasikov “Historic meeting in Havana.” Analytical papers №4, 2016 (№34)
On 12 February 2016, the first meeting of the heads of the Russian Orthodox and Roman Catholic Churches took place in Havana, Cuba, for the first time in a thousand years. The two-hour conversation between Pope Francis and His Holiness Patriarch Kirill opens up unprecedented opportunities for the two Christian churches to work together for the benefit of peace, humanity and public morality.
Yuriy Rubinskiy “France at crossroads.” Analytical papers №3, 2016 (№33)
Drastic steps in strengthening of internal and external security after the terrorist attacks in Paris led to an increase in the rating of President Hollande. But the new balance of political forces that became apparent after the regional elections makes the results of the 2017 presidential campaign unpredictable.
Natalia Antushina “Russia and Northern Europe: new phenomena in mutual trade.” Analytical papers №2, 2016 (№32)
The paper examines the dynamics and structure of mutual trade, as well as the factors that determine them. The influence of Western sanctions and retaliatory measures imposed by the Russian Federation is shown. There has been a sharp decline in food trade. It also describes the main features of labor division between Russia and the Nordic European countries, which impacts their commodity exchange and determines the prospects for their trade and economic cooperation.
Valentin Fedorov, Anatoliy Bazhan ‘Russian monetary policy: necessary amendments.” Analytical papers №1, 2016 (№31)
The analytical papers analyzes the content of Russia's current monetary policy in connection with the sharp decline in world oil prices and the application of Western anti-Russian sanctions. It is shown that the acceleration of inflation in these conditions is not determined by monetary factors, and therefore cannot be limited by traditional measures of influence in the form of cash flow regulation based on the so-called inflation targeting. The authors believe that targeting is not only ineffective for this reason, but also negatively affects the investment processes in the country and integration in the post-Soviet space, since it makes the ruble exchange rate excessively volatile, depending directly on oil prices. Recommendations are formulated for the transformation of the Russian monetary and monetary policy in order to adapt it to the realities of today.
