Table of contents
Mikhail Vedernikov “The second wave of the pandemic in the Czech Republic: the first political consequences.” Analytical papers №38, 2020 (№221)
On September 21, 2020, Czech Minister of Health A. Voitech resigned, following the sharp increase of detected COVID-19 cases. This measure was caused by the desire of the country's PM to find a sacrificial goat. Besides, it was one of the elements of current election campaign for municipal authorities and the Senate. Prime Minister's movement ANO, which previously was not able to successfully perform in those elections, is interested in higher support from voters. The resignation of Voitech was designed to keep the positive image of Babiš government, to show its readiness to compromise and listen to opinions of both the opposition and the population in general.
Vladislav Belov “Hydrogen energy: a new niche of Russian-German cooperation.” Analytical papers №37, 2020 (№220)
On September 17, 2020, the Russian-German Chamber of Commerce in Moscow held a constituent meeting of the Hydrogen Initiative Group. The event took place against the backdrop of the growing threats of US and EU sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 project and deterioration of Russian-European relations. It drew attention to the following important events of summer 2020: Russia and Germany in early June 2020 and the EU in early July presented their strategies for the development of hydrogen energy – an area that will determine the future of global energy market. Russia and Germany have good prospects of becoming its main players, first of all, in Europe. The note analyzes the prospects for possible cooperation in this area.
Vladislav Belov “The significance of communal elections in North Rhine-Westphalia for party-political processes in Germany.” Analytical papers №36, 2020 (№219)
The municipal elections held on September 13, 2020 in the largest federal state of Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia, confirmed the main party-political trends in the leading state: the strengthening of positions of CDU, Green/Union 90 and Alternative for Germany, the ongoing SPD crisis and search for their new identity as "left" and free democrats. The paper analyzes the election results, assesses the political prospects of the Prime Minister of the land A. Lashet, as well as the interaction of Christian Democrats and the Greens at the federal level and its significance for the future Russian-German cooperation.
Natalia Kondratieva “On the prospects of the EAEU and ways to increase its role in the international arena.” Analytical papers №35, 2020 (№218)
The paper considers the problem of stability and resilience of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the context of the current internal political crisis in Belarus. Analysis of activities of the Union institutions in January-August 2020 is carried out. New developments in the political and legal support of integration in all of its main areas have been identified; there is stable positive integration dynamics; Belarus is serving as the Chairman of the EAEU in 2020 up to the present time. Recommendations are given for formation of a broad strategy for the Union's resilience in view of internal and external risks, based on international experience.
Nikolay Mezhevich “Belarus: political and economic prerequisites for the future crisis.” Analytical papers №34, 2020 (№217)
Presidential elections were held in the Republic of Belarus on August 9, 2020. The election results caused protests, both in the country and outside it. The author analyzes some factors that led to the aggravation of long-standing problems, in particular, changes in the socio-economic and demographic structure of the society. The role of Russia in formation of the Belarusian economic model is shown. A separate section is devoted to analysis of the electoral support for President Alexander Lukashenko before the elections on August 9 election.
Natalia Plevako “Sweden and the challenges of the EU economic recovery.” Analytical papers №33, 2020 (№216)
On July 17-21, 2020, the EU summit in Brussels reviewed and approved the budget for 2021-2027. Recovery Fund was formed for countries and industries affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Sweden is a donor country in the EU, and the amount of contributions in the form of grants and loans proposed by the European Commission raised objections in political circles of this country. They were primarily concerned with the grants to the affected countries. A compromise decision was reached, where the countries of the "frugal four" (Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden) achieved significant reduction of the grants and partial return of contributions (rebates).
Olga Potemkina “A new security strategy of the EU.” Analytical papers №32, 2020 (№215)
The author analyses the new Security Union Strategy (SUS) for 2020-2025, presented by the EU Commission, replacing the previous European Security Agenda. Noting that the new strategy repeats inherent tasks of its predecessor, the author reveals the SUS distinctive features due to the current situation in the European Union, including consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. It is stressed that today the EU views its security in a broader sense: overcoming the dichotomy not only between the external and internal security, the traditional goal of the EU, but also ensuring resilience of both physical and digital environment. Specific tasks and Action Plans proposed by the Commission in addition to the strategy are studied as well.
Valery Zhuravel “Icebreaker race in the Arctic.” Analytical papers №31, 2020 (№214)
On June 9, 2020, the US President Donald Trump signed the Memorandum on «Safeguarding the National Interests of the United States in the Arctic and Antarctic Regions». The author analyses its contents, and mechanisms of development of the modern US polar fleet. The paper provides comparative description of current icebreaker fleets in the United States, Russia and a number of other states. It is noted that, if the Memorandum is implemented, the US role in the Arctic region in the next 10-15 years may strengthen significantly, affecting the social economic development and defense capability of Russia in the Arctic direction.
Vladimir Vernikov “Tourists won’t scare Coronavirus in Spain.” Analytical papers №30, 2020 (№213)
Spain is one of the EU member states most affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Its government, having underestimated the risks associated with the spread of COVID-19, started implementing necessary restrictive measures with significant delay compared to most European states. Only on March 14 the toughest in Europe barriers to the spread of the disease were introduced, including large fines for violating the quarantine regime. This has borne results, but the country has suffered not only irrevocable human, but also huge economic losses. This paper analyzes the content of anti-crisis measures of the Spanish government and provides a forecast of their consequences. It is concluded that the authorities are unlikely to cope with the worst of them on their own in the coming years and will be heavily dependent on the EU assistance.
Vladislav Belov “Economic and political agenda of the German Presidency of the EU Council.” Analytical papers №29, 2020 (№212)
From July 1 to December 31, Germany will be the President of the EU Council. It will largely determine the socio-economic development of the European Union, facing the most serious challenges in its post-war history caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The main tasks that Berlin will have to solve in close cooperation with Brussels include: adoption of the EU budget and a large-scale program for restoring the European economy in context of energy transition and digital transformation; settlement of Brexit; resolution of a number of economic issues in relations with the United States and China. The paper analyzes the planned measures and assesses the prospects of their implementation.
