Table of Contents
Vladimir Vernikov “The first socially oriented budget of the left coalition in Spain.” Analytical papers №47, 2020 (№230)
The article is dedicated to the state budget of Spain for 2021 adopted by the Congress of Deputies and approved by the Senate in December 2020. It is the first socially oriented document of the first leftist coalition government of PSRP and Podemos party in post-Franco period. The author analyzes the complex process of negotiations, major items of budget expenditures and prospects for its implementation.
Boris Guseletov “Results of parliamentary election in Romania.” Analytical papers №46, 2020 (№229)
The article examines the results of parliamentary elections in Romania in December 2020. The results of leading political parties are compared to elections 2016. The author analyzes the results of activities of a number of governments led by Social Democratic party, formed after elections 2016, and reviews activities of the government of L. Orban, leader of National Liberal party of Romania (NLPR), formed in October 2018. The article describes «Union for the Salvation of Romania-PLUS» party, that was elected to the Parliament in December 2020 and, most likely, will take part in formation of the new government together with NLPR. A forecast is given on how the results of elections might affect further transformation of the party-political system in Romania and relations between Russia and Romania.
Boris Guseletov “Results of parliamentary election in the Republic of Lithuania.” Analytical papers №45, 2020 (№228)
The author examines the results of parliamentary elections held in the Republic of Lithuania in October 2020. Leading political parties of the country are analyzed and results of their participation in 2016 parliamentary elections are compared with recent elections. The results of outgoing government led by a representative of «Lithuanian Union of Peasants and Greens» party S. Skvernyalis are summed up. «Union of the Fatherland-Lithuanian Christian Democrats» party, that won the recent elections, and its leader I. Simonite, who will become the new Prime Minister of Lithuania, are examined. The author forecasts how the results of elections might affect further transformation of party and political system of the Republic of Lithuania.
Anatoliy Bazhan, Sergey Roginko “EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: status, risks and possible response.” Analytical papers №44, 2020 (№227)
Subject of the analysis is the EU initiative of introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, developed within the framework of the «European Green Deal» adopted in 2019. The authors analyze in detail the origin of European border carbon tax initiatives, draw a parallel between the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the early EU initiatives on carbon taxation of flights of foreign airlines to airports in the EU countries. The article describes the tactics used by the European Union to develop the details of the proposed mechanism and to promote it on the international arena. Particular attention is paid to the assessment of the risks of Russian export-oriented sectors in case of introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and possible responses from the Russian side.
Alexey Sindeev “Germany and a new start in transatlantic relations.” Analytical papers №43, 2020 (№226)
This analytical note examines the position of leading representatives of FRG political elite regarding the possibility of a "new deal" with the United States in the post-Trump period. The note consists of three parts: in the first, the problem is formulated; secondly, the chronology of events is presented and their analysis is given; in the third, intermediate conclusions and hypotheses are expressed. The urgency of the problem requires additional study, including the Franco-German tandem.
Natalia Plevako “New Trends in Swedish Defense Policy.” Analytical papers №42, 2020 (№225)
The article examines new trends in Swedish defense policy, reflected in the draft law prepared by the Defense Committee. According to it, the defense budget should be increased by 40% over 5 years (from 2021 to 2025) to reach 1.5% GDP, thus, elevating the defense policy to a new qualitative level. The document focuses on the security policy, activation of which is directly related to the deterioration of international situation, in particular, in the North of Europe. Russia is blamed for the growing tensions, and the possibility of an armed attack on Sweden is not excluded. In this regard, the emphasis is made on creating a system of joint security to be implemented in partnership not only with Finland, Sweden's main ally, but also with other Nordic countries, as well as the US and NATO. There are almost no contradictions between political parties about the need for such cooperation, but the government of Social Democrats and Greens do not include the idea of joining NATO in the agenda.
Marina Kolesnikova “The Green Recovery of the EU: marine components.” Analytical papers №41, 2020 (№224)
On September 16, the President of European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in her speech to the European Parliament, presented the EU's action program for overcoming the pandemic crisis, as well as further Green Recovery. The EU's transition to new economic, environmental and social positions with the goal to set a global development agenda requires comprehensive structural and technological reforms. These requirements are based on the use of EU Maritime / Blue Economy and determine ways of its development, including individual industry and regional directions.
Nikolay Mezhevich "Multi-vector policy and actual sovereignty in Russian-Belarussian relations." Analytical papers №40, 2020 (№223)
The paper explains key issues of foreign policy choices currently pursued by the Republic of Belarus. The concept of sovereignty and actual constraints of “true sovereignty” in the modern world are analyzed. The Belarusian foreign trade structure is examined in the context of history and current multi-vector practices of the country. The absence of alternative to Russian-Belarussian integration is demonstrated.
Anna Ayvazyan “Violation of armistice between Armenia and Azerbaijan.” Analytical papers №39, 2020 (№222)
On September 27, 2020, military clashes between united army of Armenia, NagornoKarabakh Republic and Azerbaijan started on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh), resulting in civilian casualties. Confrontation did happen in previous years, but has never taken such a scale. Preconditions were created by the crisis in internal politics and economy of both countries as a consequence of the pandemic, on the one hand, and on the other – potential involvement of third parties, namely Turkey, into the conflict. Intermediary efforts of the OSCE Minsk group have not brought any results. The local conflict might turn into a regional crisis in longer perspective, if a solution is not found. Russia’s position in the conflict remains distanced.
